Guide
How to build repeatable prediction market strategies
A strategy builder turns discretionary bets into structured execution plans. Instead of reacting in real time, you predefine how capital moves when probabilities change, deadlines approach, or new data confirms your thesis.
Core principles
- Define an explicit thesis and invalidation before entering any market.
- Split conditions into price, time, and event triggers so execution stays deterministic.
- Route outcomes to either new positions or a wallet to lock gains by rule, not emotion.
- Pre-size exposure with caps to avoid concentration risk during volatile news cycles.
Why this matters
Structured execution helps traders reduce decision fatigue, react faster to market states, and keep risk controls consistent across venues. This is especially useful when you trade parallel narratives or need to rebalance before expiry windows.